The “Granger GO SLOW” Economy – Peter Ramsaroop

25

 

Dr. Peter Ramsaroop.
Dr. Peter Ramsaroop.

[www.inewsguyana.com] – The Granger Government  continues to stumble on an economic strategy. The main cause, I believe, apart from beginning to  govern without a sound economic strategy in place is  the fact that they are listening to all the “academic economist advisers” they have appointed who have never in their lives put theory into practice.

When one hears rice farmers, who contribute a large segment of our GDP, saying that they will not plant the next crop because of the failure of government to fulfill basic promises, then the harsh rippling effects on our society will be imagined.

Much continues to be said about where Guyana’s economy is today and the dramatic drop in activity, both from the consumers and suppliers perspective.  This economic immobilism is on a wait and see basis, especially in the business community.  Former President Ramotar said it best “Stop governing with hate and spite”.   This is another reason why I believe we are in this immobilism economic state.

Whilst on one hand we have witnessed a massive increase in government spending (Billions) in areas such as the Commission of Inquiries, high level unqualified advisors being appointed and paid, spending on non-economic initiatives, on the other hand we are experiencing the decrease in government spending on major projects which has slowed the demand in the economy; add to that the private sector slowdown in production and construction. These actions have resulted in the decline of profits, less hiring and business investments. The many layoffs by the current government of the previous administration’s  personnel and the hiring of their party followers will not result in a one to one swap of expertise, knowledge and technical abilities   instead it ushers  in a period of loss of ‘institutional knowledge”  and  muddling through whilst learning on the job. Many experienced people are now on the breadline, without new opportunities to provide for their families.

The local business cycle continues its downward movement, now in the last quarter of the year. The real-estate sector, which previously accounted for a significant portion of our economic growth, is facing an outright contraction.  Farmers in the rice industry which had seen a rapid increase in production over the last two years and with that rapid expansion and major investments will now find difficulty in sustaining themselves at current market price and more so because of the loss of the Venezuelan market.  The rice farmers now have a greater problem to deal with, how to get out.

In addition, business owners’ number one complaint is that they do not trust how the government is handling economic policies and approaches.  This lack of confidence is causing them, as one businessman told me “to lacking up of funds” meaning, holding on to their money until there is evidence as to how the tax reform and other policies will shape up.  Many businesses are also tightening their belts by lay-offs of staff.

Riding the Business Cycle:

Business cycles do fluctuate and I assume, after the hate and spite approach goes away, things may take time to get back to some normality.   While I support any infrastructure improvements, they must be done in conjunction with an economic and social focus.  Water taxis versus the Berbice Bridge is not an infrastructure solution, it may be an option, but the bigger picture of P3, (Public Private Partnerships) will be tested for future projects.  In addition, targeting businesses from an ethnic point of view by the APNU government is and will continue to have grave consequences for our economy. For the business cycle to get out of its contracted state an integrated economic policy must be re-instituted.

Business will need to take time to plan.  While major changes in operations have always been required, many of us in the private sector see it as an exception and not the rule. In the past, businesses have been content to “muddle” their way through a change effort because they knew they would have a period of stability for some time ahead.

Conclusion:

There is an urgent need for an integrated economic plan to be presented to our parliament where it can become public and be debated. This may not be a requirement in law, but an environment should exist where we as citizens can contribute to the development through a new concept of “lobbying” our parliamentarians to become more engaged in developing Guyana than developing politics. The private sector should be controlling the economy but we can’t because we are unable to debate and discuss parliamentary legislation on the economy   that severely impacts on our business models.

Businesses, I would opined take this time to evaluate their current revenue stream and a further period to look at new opportunities.  The effect of the current failed fiscal policy as we saw in the 2015 budget is gaining notoriety, the negative results we all had expected.

The fact that the Granger Government halted major transformative projects that were part of the previous administration plan to ensure economic growth, because we had predicted that commodities prices will fall, has left us “up the creek without a paddle”!  One main option to revive the economy is to slash corporate and personal taxes drastically and introduce public spending in major infrastructure projects including the road to Brazil and a deep water harbour and rethinking alternative energy solutions.

I believe the longer economic action is delayed, the greater the risk that the worsening imbalance will end in catastrophe. Guyana need not be in this situation, especially at a time when we are on the world stage tackling the Venezuela issue. #end

 

25 COMMENTS

  1. Dude at least when Jagdeo was President the Venezuelan wasn’t take over Guyana but as soon as PNC rule it started
    Just look what kind of people are business in Guyana is the Indians
    ,if they close shop Guyana is going in the hands of the dogs

  2. anni, there are 3.5 billion women in the world..”how could I possibly be a bully to every woman.”?? some Indians do have dignity and pride just as some are soupies , Sweeping generalizations are the hallmark of a prejudiced person…..I am a person of mix race Indian being one of them, this information you need to know.

  3. Peter the illiterate dunce head racist homosexual jackass the poor people of Guyana need a break from the no good jagdeo and his good for shit party 23 years of shit .. Just look all the drug money the ppp collect plus the money they steal from Guyana they have nothing to represent the people of Guyana from Venezuela, s treat to take the country poor Granger got to struggle to find a way to ward off madura while u write your long page of shit why don’t u take your page and push it up your racists ass

  4. peter speak about what is happened in guyana and everybody just get angry about the man ,go to the market and see how people are asking to buy walks and see for yourself

  5. It is because Guyana was not broke like in 1992 that this PNC Government can do things you got to know how to run your home before you can run a Government how many
    of you can run your home

  6. Gary you attack every woman for their opinion.You will always be a bully.For your information Indians are not soupie as you call them you should change your strained vocabulary .Indians have great pride and dignity .

  7. Moses and rumgattan are worse grasshoppers, they went from PPP after 50 years to AFC then to APNU just for power – why they stayed in the PPP so long if they think it was bad . answer that Shirley

  8. Peter boy keep it up. 2000+ likes on one page alone, so the little negative comments is good for the soul. Every ordinary Guyanese is feeling the squeeze. If you follow most of the negative comments, they are all from NY. ha ha

  9. We have a bunch of dunces leading our country. This is only the start. A huge ripple effect will follow.
    Peter keep voicing your opinions. Guyanese is this the change you voted for???

  10. Ok so you think the Granger government are miracle works. You are unbelievable with that stupid comment….Why don’t you put your picture up there so we all can see who you are….You have said nothing smart or wise.Soupie!!

  11. Peter – The fact that they are all coming at you, tells me you have struck a nerve. Inews should do a poll among business owners, I bet they will say the same things. The previous reference by “mark” I decided to do my own research on you. It shows you founded a successful business “Evolvent Technologies” in DC. I want to commend you for being brave and saying what many of us feel. Rick

  12. Guess u was not on earth for the pass 2 years .. This economic ..planned the government try to put in place is a square peg in a round hold .. U all wake up.. peter is right .. What the government should do is seek pppp advise especially brilliant mr jadeo

  13. Peter the Grasshopper or is it Peeping Tom!! You have absolutely no political credibility whatsoever. Are you still singing for a seat in parliament? Newsflash: The PPP did not pick you; they know an opportunist when they see one, never mind your shameless groveling. The so-called great entrepreneur you purport to be, tell Guyanese about the success of your sweetie and plantain chips factory. Imagine a discredited loser like you criticising a stalwart like Granger. Shame on you!! Grasshopper! Peeping Tom!

  14. I do agree with you. He has no interest in making any positive comment on the accomplishment and the hurdles the Granger government had to over come. The Bar Rat and Romatar has left the country in a terrible shape and now the expect miracle …I say what nerve of those THIEVES AND CROOKS. They are trying to make what seems like positive input , however all the want is to put doubt in the Guyanese people mind about the new government.

  15. Peter. Oh peter. The old ppl would say you are still looking for a place in the sun. Be true to yourself. And you will find some peace. Thank god for a change. With all the racism lies. Drugs etc etc. The govt still bailing out all these companies. Ramotar and jagdeo wickedly left to suffer. For your info. The economy was slow over a year or 2. Ppl are no longer fools. Bye and grow brains peter

  16. This is absolutely correct! The USA install Granger and company to destroy Guyana economy so they can suck the oil money out! It is a simple formula…since the APNU took office, they have not increase the dollar value by a single penny, they have not created any jobs (instead many are crying for payments) and the crime rate has gone up….It is very stupid of Guyana to make issues with Venezuela….reason: Venezuela is Guyana biggest trading partner for rice-oil! USA will not buy any product off Guyana, England will not buy any product off Guyana…the local people will suffer….it is the begin of the end for them! RUN RUN RUN from Guyana!

  17. PNC is known to put square pegs in round holes! Example: Old sickly Ramaiah replaced a young and highly qualified Ramrattan as R.E.O in Region six. Felix, and Williams despite their involvement in planting drugs on our PNC daughter person etc. etc.

  18. This man who wrote this letter is a blind and one sided person , he is not speaking the truth about how much the government is doing and how much have done in only 4 months ,it is a shame how much our own guyanese behave so foolish and belittle there selves because of there own eggoes straight talk our new government make the opposition look like liers and they are liers and i was for ppp before.

  19. Oh, Peter, Peter, Peter…still trying to be relevant eh? I guess the improved performances being rolled out by GuySuCo has eluded you? The fact that gold prices have been on a downward spiral before this government took power and have since offered concessions on fuel, equipment etc to aid the sector eluded you. I guess the artificial price being paid for rice before this government took power through a “three card trick” with our land grabbing lunatic eluded you. I guess the securing of markets recently in Panama eluded you. Peter, you lack credibility and any moral spine. Did you not have your own Party, then you went to the PNC, then to PPP when you thought they would be in power forever? In the good old days when the PPP apparently had a cogent economic plan, what happened to your agro-processing plant at Land of Canaan? What happened to the luxury vehicle you were trying to bring in claiming it was to transport agricultural products. Peter, things have slowed down because the illicit money is not (AND WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO CIRCULATE) as before. Just think about that. In closing, you are criticising Guyana’s economists for being theoretical when you cannot point to single useful investment you ever made!!! And “your” publications are replete with cut and paste material. You are truly shameless. I rest.

LEAVE A REPLY

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.