The National Weather Watch Center says thunderstorms resulting in potential flooding and mudslides are forecasted to occur between May 4 and May 8, 2021.
Rainfall records for the past 24 hours, measured at 08:00hrs today, were available for most of the stations. The highest rainfall of 50.0 mm was record at Fort Island in Region 3.
Synopsis: Coastal Regions 2 to 6 of the forecast area continues to experience more stable conditions when compared to the rest of Regions based on analysis and forecast models. Vertical shear and moderate mid to upper level subsidence have diminished strong convection over these areas. Conditions are likely to continue for the next 48 to 72 hours with a ridging pattern also being indicated by Meteorological Models. Inland areas continue to be unstable as strong confluence of the winds at the low levels coupled with troughs propagating across these areas with a moist atmosphere and favorable upper levels will continue to enhance convective activity and is likely to continue into the weekend.
Southern Guyana was mostly stable today as strong subsidence aloft was main reason for these conditions. Forecast models are indicating that as from Sunday night into Monday that Coastal Guyana will likely become very unstable as strong confluencing of the trades at the low levels coupled with well-defined troughs at the 850 and 700mb levels respectively moving across these areas. A very moist atmosphere is also forecasted with an asymptote of diffluence at the 200 mb emanating from an Anticyclone to the east of the forecast area. Strong convection is likely to be experience over these areas. Southern Guyana will also experience strong instabilities from Monday afternoon into the evening.
Saturday to Wednesday: Saturday and Sunday, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with brief showers of varying intensities are likely to experience over Coastal Regions 2 to 6 in the morning hours. Southern Guyana can likely expect these conditions in the afternoon hours. Rainfall is expected to range between 10.0 mm and 25.0 mm within a 24 hours’ period.
Region 1, Southern Region 6 and Inland Guyana will likely experience cloudy to overcast skies with frequent showers of varying intensities and possible thundershowers over Inland
areas. Rainfall is expected to range between 20.0 mm and 50.0 mm within a 24 hours’ period. Southern Guyana can likely expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with brief showers in the afternoon Monday, Coastal Regions 1 to 6 will likely experience mostly overcast skies with frequent showers of varying intensities and frequent rain. Thundershowers are also likely over these areas in the morning hours. Rainfall is expected to range between 50.0 mm and 100.0 mm within a 24 hours’ period. Southern Guyana and Inland areas will likely experience similar conditions in the afternoon into the evening hours with rainfall likely to range between 30.0 mm and 80.0 mm within a 24 hours’ period.
For the remainder of the forecast period, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with brief showers of varying intensities are likely to be experience over the entire forecast areas Rainfall is expected to range between 10.0 mm and 30.0mm within a 24 hours’ period.